Success Stories

Dennis Bragg and sister Jeanie Harvey are innovative and energetic growers in northern Alabama. They won a grant from the United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Water Enhancement Program to cost-share the construction of their federally-approved irrigation impoundment. The legislation that made the program possible, sending millions of dollars to southeastern states for such projects, was driven by research performed though the SECC. Dennis was all smiles as he filled the pond from a swollen creek after heavy rains in February 2011. He said, referring to the gushing water, "It's like I'm watching money go into my bank account... and I own the bank." It was especially important to have "money in the bank" during the heat wave of early June 2011, when Alabama crops needed considerable moisture.

For more information about this project, contact Dick McNider.

Photo Caption: Farmer Dennis Bragg (center) with SECC scientists Dick McNider (left) and John Christy (right) in northern Alabama.

As part of an SECC initiative and as a result of a 2007-2008 drought in the Southeast US, we started working with the City of Auburn, AL to see how the city was dealing with the water supply and demand issues during drought. As with many southeastern cities, Auburn is experiencing significant population growth and urbanization. The population of the city jumped from 33,830 in 1990 to currently over 50,000, which is expected to grow to 66,000 by 2025. There has been an apparent trend of increasing water demand in the city, which has often been exacerbated by drought. For example, the impacts of the 2000 and the recent 2007 droughts on water use are evident from the figure.

Average daily water use in (a) million gallons per day (blue line) and (b) per capita (red line), in Auburn.

In the Southeast, seasonal to inter-annual (SI) climate variability and, hence, occurrence of drought is greatly influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño years tend to be cool and wet, while La Niña years tend to be warm and dry, between October and April. Drier conditions in winter have an enormous impact on southeastern states because these states depend on water recharge during the cool season. A drier winter also increases the odds of going into a multi-year drought. Since La Nina typically returns every two to seven years, drought is a recurring phenomenon in the Southeast.

When SECC started working with Auburn, the city was not using SI climate forecasts for their water supply and demand management. We worked with the city's Watershed Division Manager, Matthew Dunn, and discussed with him how to use SI climate forecasts to reduce the impact of drought on water supply and demand. As a result of the SECC's interactions with Matthew Dunn, using the SI climate forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the city recently issued a drought update to its customers in an effort to curb water demand during the 2010 lawn-watering season. The update was issued well in advance to make sure that it was effective in reducing water demand.

Collaboration with city also lead to a proposal to develop a municipal water deficit index for small municipalities in the Southeast that depend on surface water sources for their municipal water supply. This proposal received funding from the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) Coping with Drought initiative through the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP). The project is expected to engage a large group of small municipalities in the Southeast and, just like the City of Auburn, would help them use SI climate forecasts to effectively deal with drought. Average daily water use in (a) million gallons per day (blue line) and (b) per capita (red line), in Auburn. Average daily water use per capita (gd/capita)Average daily water use (MGD)mgdgd/capita

As part of the SECC, The Florida State University (FSU) produces a wildfire threat forecast for each county in Florida, Georgia and Alabama. Forest managers are given month by month probability forecasts for a drought indicator that is used to pinpoint potentially serious wildfires. In Florida, managers use the forecast and other facts to relocate equipment and personnel to anticipated hotspots.

Mandy S., a landowner in Bradford County, used this service in 2008 as she was trying to decide when to harvest the pine stands that were around her home. When she learned from an SECC researcher that we were in a La Niña phase, which increases the chance of wildfire, she moved up her planned date of harvesting the trees to avoid the risk that they might catch fire and threaten her home during the coming wildfire season.

For the second time in three years, ranchers from Paraguay have inquired about the SECC's official position on the strength and duration of the current El Niño phase. The ranchers own land in a low-lying area subject to flooding not only from rains but also from the rise of the Paraguay River and its tributaries. If a very strong El Niño and subsequent effects are predicted, the ranchers would move their cattle to rented land on higher ground, which is an expensive proposition.

The last time the ranchers asked for our prediction, we forecasted a weak El Niño, and they left their cattle in the low-lying area, saving thousands of dollars in transportation and land leasing costs. This year, they will move their cattle soon before things get even rainier and the land floods. While the ranchers have other sources of information on El Niño and its magnitude, their confidence is placed squarely on the SECC and AgroClimate.org when supporting these important climate-related management decisions.

The USDA Risk Management Agency announce a new pilot program in 2007 whereby insurance would be made available to protect pasture and forage production from weather and climate related losses based upon rainfall indices and vegetation greenness. As fall approached in 2007, it was apparent that La Niña conditions were developing in the Pacific Ocean and would affect climate and weather patterns across the Southeast USA in the coming cold season. La Niña is known for bringing dry and warm winters to Florida and the Southeast and experience with farmers and Extension has proven that winter forage production in this area is adversely affected by these climate shifts.

The SECC issued a "La Niña watch" and subsequent agricultural outlook in September 2007 that warned of the developing conditions in the Pacific Ocean and potential impacts on winter climate and agricultural production in the Southeast. Based upon this information, ranchers and forage producers in Florida, South Georgia, and South Alabama were urged by Extension (e.g. Doug Mayo of Jackson County, FL, Extension, and William Birdsong, a Southeast Alabama agronomist) to take advantage of this new pilot insurance program and aggressively purchase insurance against the greater likelihood of developing drought given the La Niña forecast.

Figure 3. During La Niña events, cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean often lead to drier, warmer winters in the Southeast USA. Image courtesy of NASA.

In September 2007, the SECC issued the first ever "La Niña Watch" (an idea which has now been adopted by NOAA). As part of the watch, we alerted winter hay farmers that serious drought would occur in late winter, and that it was highly probable that forage growers without irrigation would lose their entire investment. Forage producers who worried about continuing drought after the 2007-08 La Niñas frequently consulted the SECC's AgroClimate.org website for the Climate Phase Forecast, hoping for a break in the drought.

While visiting AgroClimate.org, which is directly linked from the Georgia Forages Drought Page (http://www.georgiaforages.com/), producers also found useful information on winter forage production and fertilization, and there are reports of producers who planted annual ryegrass with confidence knowing we were in an El Niño phase. Dennis Hancock, University of Georgia (UGA) forage specialist, reports that many of the UGA forage extension agents regularly consult AgroClimate.org for guidance in making strategic planting and fertilization decisions, in addition to decisions on whether to purchase additional feed ahead of a forecasted bad winter or spring.

Organic sales are the fastest growing sector in the food industry. According to the 2007 Agricultural Census, organic food sales more than tripled, from $393 million in 2002 to $1.7 billion in 2007. Since many organic farmers are new to agriculture, the ability to access reliable technical information is crucial to the viability of their operations. Furthermore, being younger, more highly educated, computer savvy, and generally more diversified than mainstream farmers, they are interested in learning and experimenting with innovative tools and techniques.

Most organic farmers grow horticultural crops, which are highly sensitive to climate conditions and are grown within a seasonal time frame. Over 90% of organic farmers surveyed mentioned weather and climate as important drivers of management decisions, more than half (58%) often seek climate forecasts such as those produced by the SECC, and half (50%) use such forecasts in management decisions. Organic farmers routinely rely on websites and workshops (key outreach mechanisms for the SECC) as sources of trusted technical information.

Demonstrations of SECC products generated a lot of enthusiasm among organic farmers. They determined that such tools can help them make better decisions about cropping patterns, land management, irrigation technology, livestock feeding regimes, financial management, and marketing.

Georgia ranks first in the USA in production of peanuts and gen rally harvests almost half of the peanuts produced in the USA each year. Peanuts are however highly sensitive to climate stress and to the severe droughts that have occurred in the Southeast USA in the last several years.

Since 2005, the SECC has endeavored to reduce farmers' vulnerability to climate shocks by providing up-to-date, science-based information and tools to support management decisions. Applying the latest advances in climate forecasting and crop modeling, the SECC issues seasonal climate outlooks to forewarn farmers about potentially adverse (or favorable) conditions.

An outlook for drought conditions was issued by the SECC in January 2006 and distributed to agricultural extension agents. Later in the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated 155 of the 159 counties in Georgia as primary natural disaster areas due to crop losses, including a 30% reduction in peanut production, caused by drought and excessive temperatures.

The extension agent for Irwin County, one of the main peanut producing counties in south Georgia, included the forecast in the weekly column he writes for the local newspaper, along with the recommendation that farmers consider growing a droughtresistant peanut variety (02-C) instead of the more common, higher yielding Georgia Green variety. Many of the county farmers who had no irrigation followed the agent’s advice, and were therefore able to minimize their losses in the face of drought. Since then, similar applications of SECC products have been reported in several other Georgia counties.

Several blueberry producers in North Central Florida and Southern Georgia said they would use the Chill Units tool on the SECC's AgroClimate.org website to manage applications of plant growth regulators. Blueberries and other temperate fruit need to "rest" in winter in order to produce abundant fruit. If enough "chill units" do not accumulate, the grower needs to apply a synthetic product to induce dormancy. Although the synthetic product is expensive, the SECC chill tool allows the producers to plan input purchases and better calculate approximate application periods, thereby maximizing their investment in the product.

Figure 2.
An AgroClimate.org regional chill map shows the probability that chilling in a county will be greater than the normal (median) amount for the forecast period.

"Whiskey is for drinking; water is for fighting over."
- Mark Twain (attributed but unverified)

As part of our SECC initiative to reduce risk in agriculture through expanded irrigation using winter water, we began to work with Dennis B., a young farmer in northern Alabama who was irrigating his corn from a small creek. We tried to convince him that pulling from the small creek during low flows in the summer was not in the best interest of the stream habitat. He responded, partly in jest, that it was in the best interest of the corn, the best interests of the Jack Daniels distillery just up the road that needs the corn, and the best interest of the Chinese who want Jack Daniels.

He finally became convinced when he realized that he could actually have more irrigation water by withdrawing during the winter and storing the water in an onfarm reservoir. He applied for and was awarded funds to build an off-stream reservoir under the Agricultural Water Enhancement Program (AWEP), a part of the USDA's 2008 Farm Bill that came about through SECC support and action. Thus, the stream and our whiskey supply are saved and America's balance of payments is strengthened. Twenty-three farmers in Alabama have signed up so far through AWEP to build onfarm reservoirs and have received about $1.5 million in federal support.

Strawberry growers must protect their crops with expensive pesticide applications to produce high quality fresh fruit. In Florida, growers may need up to 20 pesticide applications and spend up to $800 per acre due to the high costs of fungicides, labor, and machinery.

In 2006/2007, the SECC initiated a project to make use of weather data and climate forecasts to advise growers on the timing of fungicide applications in Florida. The advisory system (available at http://agroclimate.org/tools/strawberry/ ) uses weather data from stations operated by regional and national weather services as well as SECCdeveloped climate forecasts to predict when weather conditions are favorable for strawberry diseases. Growers can thus apply fungicides only when conditions are favorable for disease, reducing the number and costs of applications while keeping strawberries healthy.

One strawberry grower in Citrus County, FL, used the system during the 2008-09 season, reducing the number of fungicide applications by 50% and saving $400 per acre. News of this success spread fast. As of 2009/2010, 15 growers are using the system. If all growers in Central Florida use the system for their 7,500 acres of winter strawberries, they can potentially reduce costs by up to $3 million per year and significantly decrease the environmental risks associated with pesticide use

Figure 1.
The Strawberry Disease Tool, available on AgroClimate.org, provides recommendations for timing fungicide applications for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot.